Bloomberg Intelligence: China Could Lead Large-Language-Model Development by 2030

On October 28, Bloomberg News cited a Bloomberg Intelligence report saying that China could become the world leader in large language models, an AI core technology, by 2030, while remaining competitive in every other strategically important technology field.

The analyst team, led by Chen Yongfu, also known as Francis Chan, forecasts that by the end of 2030 China will be a leader in 8 industries — 8 of the 17 key industries it assesses — and large language models are among them. The same report notes that Chinese companies are now generally behind in other important AI-race categories, but should be competitive by 2030; the categories include the hardware needed to operate AI, from chips to optical network components.

How the forecast splits the AI race

According to the report: “By 2030, the United States and China are expected to jointly lead AI technology development, and the two countries are unlikely to achieve comprehensive dominance.”

It suggests U.S. models may hold a slight frontier advantage, while China's strength in software optimization gives it a favorable position for low-cost AI applications. In semiconductors, China is expected to narrow the technology gap, but complete self-sufficiency is not seen as an immediate outcome.

Beyond AI, Bloomberg Intelligence expects China to lead globally in all three new energy sectors, including electric vehicles and energy storage, and to hold the top position in biopharmaceutical manufacturing. It also points to China's current lead in humanoid-robot production and parts of shipbuilding, along with research-and-development spending that has caught up with the United States.